ESTIMATING THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF TESTING CAPACITY AND SOCIAL DISTANCING IN PREDICTING THE GROWTH RATE OF DAILY COVID-19 CASES
Abstract
Background: First identified case of the severe acute respiratory distress syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was reported in the city of Wuhan, China in December, 2019. The virus quickly spread to the rest of the world leading to an ongoing global pandemic. Globally, various initiatives were set in place, to avoid the further spread of the virus while the world continued to struggle for finding a solution. This study was conducted to estimate the effect of social distancing (days since imposition of a lock-down) and the number of daily tests conducted per million population on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases. Methods: After excluding the first 30 days since the announcement of an index case in a country, relevant data for the next forty days was collected from four countries: Belgium, Italy, South Korea and United Kingdom. Two online databases: Our World in Data and worldometer were used for the collection of data which included the number of new COVID-19 cases and the number of tests conducted on a given day. The acquired figures were transformed into per million population of the given country. Growth rate of daily COVID-19 cases was derived and was used as the regress and in a multiple linear regression with number of tests per million population per day and the number of days since a lock-down was imposed as the regressors. Results: It was found that the growth rate of daily COVID-19 cases decreased by .051% when the number of daily tests conducted per million population increased by 1. A .532% decrease in the growth rate of daily COVID-19 cases was observed with each passing day of a lock-down, which essentially represented the most effective form of social distancing. A significant regression was calculated (F(2,155) = 35.191 , p =.014), with an R2 of .054. Neither the daily number of tests conducted per million population nor the number of days of maintaining social distancing (lock-down) were individually significant contributors to the prediction of the growth rate of daily COVID-19 cases (p=.267 and p=.554 respectively). Conclusions: Extensive and rapid increase in the daily number of testing capacity and maintaining social distancing can decrease the growth rate of daily COVID-19 cases. Depending on the availability of the required resources, timely implementation of these measures can lead to better outcomes for a given population.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS, Social Distancing, Pandemic, Corona Virus
References
REFERENCES
WHO. Technical guidance: Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it [Internet]. World Health Organization 2019 [cited 2020 Apr 17]. Available from: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it
WHO. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation report -75 [internet]. World Health Organization
[cited 2020 Apr 17]. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200404-sitrep-75-covid-19.pdf
CDC. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): How COVID-19 spreads [internet]. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 17]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html
REUTERS. World news: Wuhan lockdown '˜unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus [internet].
REUTERS 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 17]. Available from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/wuhan-lockdown-unprecedented-shows-commitment-to-contain-virus-who-representative-in-china-idUSKBN1ZM1G9
Worldometer. Coronavirus: China [internet]. Worldometer 2019 [cited 2020 Apr 18]. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
CDS. CRONACHE: Coronavirus, primi due casi in Italia: due turisti cinesi, marito e moglie. In Italia da 7 giorni (atterrati a Milano) [internet]. Corriere Della Sera 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 18]. Available from: https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_gennaio_31/virus-primi-due-casi-italia-due-cinesi-marito-moglie-italia-dieci-giorni-e365df1c-43b3-11ea-bdc8-faf1f56f19b7.shtml
La Repubblica. Politica: Decreto coronavirus, ecco tutte le misure del governo [internet]. La republica 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 18]. Available from: https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/01/news/coronavirus_misure_governo-249980561/
CNN. World: All of italy is in lockdown as coronavirus case rise [internet]. Cable News Network 2020
[cited 2020 Apr 18]. Available from: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-intl/index.html
The Guardian. World: Italy charges more than 40,000 people with violating lockdown [internet]. The Guardian 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 18]. Available from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/italy-charges-more-than-40000-people-violating-lockdown-coronavirus
Worldometer. Coronavirus: Italy [internet]. Worldometer 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 19]. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
REUTERS. World news: South Korea confirms first case of new Coronavirus in Chinese visitor [internet].
REUTERS 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 19]. Available from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pneumonia-south-korea/south-korea-confirms-first-case-of-new-coronavirus-in-chinese-visitor-idUSKBN1ZJ0C4
World Bank Blogs. Korea's response to COVID-19: Early lessons in tackling the pandemic [internet]. World Bank Blogs 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 20]. Available from: https://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/koreas-response-covid-19-early-lessons-tackling-pandemic
WHO. COVID-19: Virtual Press conference 18 March, 2020 [internet]. World Health Organization 2020
[cited 2020 Apr 20]. Available from: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-18mar2020b4d4018fc1904605831b6a08d31e0cbc.pdf?sfvrsn=1f444736_4
Our World in Data. Statistics and Research: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing [internet]. Our World in
Data 2019 [cited 2020 Apr 20]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Worldometer. Coronavirus Update (Live): Cases and Deaths [internet]. Worldometer 2020 [cited 2020 Apr
. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
FPS. Coronavirus COVID-19: One repatriated Belgian has tested positive for the novel coronavirus [internet]. Federal Public Services Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 22]. Available from: https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/news/one-repatriated-belgian-has-tested-positive-for-the-novel-coronavirus/
DW. Europe: Coronavirus - What are the lockdown measures across Europe [internet]. Deutsche Welle
[cited 2020 Apr 22]. Available from: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-what-are-the-lockdown-measures-across-europe/a-52905137
Worldometer. Belgium Coronavirus: Cases and Deaths [internet]. Worldometer 2020 [cited 2020 Apr 22].
Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/
Worldometer. South Korea Coronavirus: Cases and Deaths [ineternet]. Worldometer 2020 [cited 2020 Apr
. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
OSC. COVID-19 Cases in the UK: Daily Update [internet]. OPEN STATS CORONAVIRUS 2020 [cited
Apr 23]. Available from: https://www.coronavirus-statistiques.com/stats-pays/covid-19-cases-uk/
Worldometer. United Kingdom Coronvirus: Cases and Deaths [internet]. Worldometer 2020 [cited 2020
Apr 23]. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Journal of Ayub Medical College, Abbottabad is an OPEN ACCESS JOURNAL which means that all content is FREELY available without charge to all users whether registered with the journal or not. The work published by J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad is licensed and distributed under the creative commons License CC BY ND Attribution-NoDerivs. Material printed in this journal is OPEN to access, and are FREE for use in academic and research work with proper citation. J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad accepts only original material for publication with the understanding that except for abstracts, no part of the data has been published or will be submitted for publication elsewhere before appearing in J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad. The Editorial Board of J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad makes every effort to ensure the accuracy and authenticity of material printed in J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad. However, conclusions and statements expressed are views of the authors and do not reflect the opinion/policy of J Ayub Med Coll Abbottabad or the Editorial Board.
USERS are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the BOAI definition of open access.
AUTHORS retain the rights of free downloading/unlimited e-print of full text and sharing/disseminating the article without any restriction, by any means including twitter, scholarly collaboration networks such as ResearchGate, Academia.eu, and social media sites such as Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Scholar and any other professional or academic networking site.
